Could the Sahel Emulate Liberia's Democratic Blueprint for Stability and Progress?
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Could the Sahel Emulate Liberia's Democratic Blueprint for Stability and Progress?
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By Gerald Kilimo
February, 2024
Liberia's Path to Democracy
Over the years, the elections in the Sahelian region have been marred with conflict, as incumbent leaders cling to power. In contrast, Liberia has been consistently upholding its commitment to peaceful democratic transitions, including the most recent election, when President George Weah gracefully accepted defeat, allowing President-elect Joseph Boakai to take office following a tightly contested race won by a mere 1.28% margin. This peaceful transition, reminiscent of the one in 2017, not only highlights Liberia's growing political stability, but also prompts a closer look at whether the nation's efforts to fortify its democracy might provide insights into what appears to be a year teeming with elections across neighboring countries.
The Primacy of Political Will
Liberia has made significant progress in strengthening its electoral systems, overcoming historical challenges to stability. Institutional bodies like the Liberia Anti-Corruption Commission (LACC) and the Public Procurement and Concessions Commission (PPCC) have improved governance and facilitated smoother presidential transitions. Under President Weah, the National Election Commission (NEC) has also gained financial autonomy, notably funding the 2023 election domestically, reducing the risk of foreign interference.
Nonetheless, the key to Liberia's smooth transition was the political will among warring factions to engage in a power-sharing arrangement, which led to the signing of the Accra Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Ghana. This pact established a transitional government and laid the groundwork for democratic elections.
A Lack of Political Will Threatens Sahelian Stability Ahead of 2024 Elections
In the Sahel region, the upcoming elections in Mali, Chad, and Senegal are among those drawing widespread attention. To start with, Mali's current political crisis is marked by an erosion of democratic freedoms. Firstly, the junta, an unelected authority, unilaterally amended the constitution, and with only an estimated 28% of eligible voters participating, the referendum lacked credibility from the outset. Since the 2020 coup against the re-elected Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, Goïta's junta has made little progress in organizing new elections, with repeated delays and a reluctance to set up an impartial electoral monitoring body, further dimming the prospects for a democratic transition. Secondly and drawing from Liberia’s case, the pivotal roles of ECOWAS and the UN in peaceful transitions highlight their importance in regional stability. However, the Malian junta's intent to exit the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and expel United Nations (UN) peacekeepers signals a move away from collaborative peace efforts, potentially delaying democratic progress and indicating an attempt to solidify their power for the long term. Ultimately, a significant change in the junta's approach to governance, which appears unlikely in the future, is crucial for Mali's return to democratic rule.
Chad, a country of 17 million people, is also expected to hold elections. Chad's November 2024 elections are anticipated to be tightly controlled to maintain General Mahamat Déby's power. Loyalists will be controlling election policies with minimal independent oversight. The malleable approach toward the constitution through arbitrary constitutional changes, electoral delays, and the co-opting of opposition leaders, has enabled the Déby family to enshrine a system of hereditary succession, paving the way for it to remain in power indefinitely. Such an environment suppresses the voices of Chadians, thereby contributing significantly to unrest, and fosters self-perpetuating leadership systems, which seldom allow for peaceful transitions of power. Therefore, while Chad could look to Liberia's significant democratic progress for strategic approaches, the current situation indicates a lack of political will to pursue this route. The absence of this critical factor - political will - in Chad suggests that the military is likely to maintain its rule for the foreseeable future.
Finally, Senegal, notable for its apolitical and professional military, is also set for elections. Yet, rising tensions have emerged during President Macky Sall's final years, especially following the postponement of elections to December 2024, which could contravene constitutional limits. Sall's actions may compromise Senegal's historic democratic traditions and undermine his efforts till date to attract foreign investment, especially in the oil and gas sectors. With this move, Senegal is at a risk of losing it democratic credentials, especially with the arrest of three Senegalese opposition lawmakers over what is deemed to be a political move to extend Sall’s term. Unlike Chad and Mali, Senegal, once an exemplar of regional stability, has seemed - at least for now - to veer off course.
Confronted with security challenges across the Sahel, Liberia's path to democracy serves as a testament to the essential role of political will in establishing strong institutions and upholding the rule of law. As the region approaches a critical election year, countries should consider Liberia's strategic adoption of power sharing, tailored to its unique political dynamics, and its collaborative endeavors with relevant entities, as positive benchmarks. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.