Pawn Moves and Power Plays: The Geopolitics of African Trade
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Pawn Moves and Power Plays: The Geopolitics of African Trade
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By Aparupa Chakravarti and Tito Mbathi
March, 2024
Imagine a world where people and goods are able to cross borders with ease, a world without customs agents and outsized tariffs, a world where all barriers to trade have vanished and a unified market leads to economic prosperity. To many, this would be the ideal, but unfortunately reality often diverges from the paragon. The Pan-Africanist concept propelled by the AfCFTA and its corresponding push towards seamless trade across borders is compelling, but what unfolds when geopolitical tumult shakes the very foundations of these aspirations? The continent’s complex geopolitical landscape cannot be ignored. Let’s explore this through the lens of the topic du jour, the mutual security pact between Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, commonly referred to as l'Alliance des États du Sahel (AES).
Redrawn Allegiances
The inception of the AES, amidst the backdrop of coups and regional instability, underscores how geopolitical issues can stymie the aspirations of AfCFTA. The Sahel region, marred by fundamentalist insurgencies and intergovernmental tensions, presents a vivid tableau of the challenges at play. The voluntary departure of the countries of the AES from the region’s predominant economic union, ECOWAS, was in part a response to the union’s strict sanctions against these states, which at one point had even gone as far as full suspension from the union. In essence, while sanctions and suspensions aimed at the AES’s leadership sought to apply political pressure, they paradoxically strengthened sovereigntist narratives, pushing these states further away from their peers. In reality, actions against specific regimes inadvertently affect the broader economic landscape, highlighting the need for nuanced strategies that consider both political and economic realities when setting integration goals.
Geopolitical Gambits
The departure of the AES from ECOWAS exemplifies the fragility of existing political alliances and reflects broader challenges within African regional institutions. The ambitions of these institutions highlight a stark contrast between lofty policy goals and the realities of political discord and economic rivalries.
Another striking example of this disconnect comes from the EAC, where ambitions for a single currency and a political federation starkly contrasts the dissension seen among its members. A history of rivalries, protectionism, and unresolved political disputes across the continent are emblematic of a broader issue facing AfCFTA: navigating the precarious balance between sovereign ambitions and collective economic goals. Steering through these intricacies is akin to a chess game, where each move represents a political participant’s attempt to balance its interests with collective economic goals. While initially suspending the AES from ECOWAS was a bold move on the chessboard, it backfired when these countries decided to leave the union, which, in turn, put ECOWAS on the defensive, and they are now attempting rapprochement, The AfCFTA must maneuver through these geopolitical gambits with a nuanced approach, ensuring that its aspirations for regional economic integration are not checkmated by transient political upheavals.
Invigorating the AfCFTA
To enhance AfCFTA's implementation against the background of Africa's geopolitical intricacies, a dynamic strategy will be needed.
Primarily, the establishment of an emergency trade contingency plan will provide some of the necessary adaptability to the AfCFTA. Such a plan would outline measures to be taken in the event of instability within any member state, including provisions for maintaining essential trade routes and protecting investments during crisis situations. One compelling idea under this umbrella is to establish designated emergency trade corridors. These alternative routes would be activated in response to geopolitical closures or disruptions, providing a safety net for businesses and ensuring minimal interruption in trade activities.
Another potential solution, albeit a costlier one, would be the introduction of a guaranteed fund escape mechanism that allows businesses to withdraw their funds from the local market without facing any restrictions during predefined times of crisis. To achieve this, the organization could establish a dedicated funding pool, which would serve as a safety net for companies operating within AfCFTA member states. This mechanism would offer businesses greater confidence and stability in uncertain political climates, ensuring that they have access to their capital when needed most.
Finally, the integration of a robust legal framework within AfCFTA, one that harmonizes the sovereignty of its member states with the goals of economic integration, is fundamental. Such a framework ought to incorporate provisions for assessing and mitigating political risks, ensuring that businesses operating within politically volatile contexts are adequately protected. One example of how this could be implemented by the AfCFTA would be the development of trade continuity agreements among its members, which guarantee trade operations during political crises. Through integrating measures that can ensure stability, alongside leveraging its innovative mechanisms like PAPSS, the AfCFTA can better enhance the resilience and cohesion of the African market landscape.
In an imperfect world, where the geopolitical landscape of Africa remains fraught with complexities, the vision of seamless trade requires not just economic but also political tailoring. The experiences of the Sahel Group highlight the intricate balance between national sovereignty and regional economic goals. To navigate this landscape successfully, a balanced approach that equally addresses economic and political barriers is indispensable. Such an approach will allow the AfCFTA to build a resilient and unified African market, reflecting a pragmatic approach to achieving economic integration amidst diverse political challenges.
Aparupa Chakravarti is the Director and Tito Mbathi is an Associate at Botho Emerging Markets Group