The Past, the Present, and the Future of BRICS as told from Brazil’s Perspective
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The Past, the Present, and the Future of BRICS as told from Brazil’s Perspective
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By Heitor Pellegrina, Assistant Professor of Economics at New York University Abu Dhabi, and Izabela Silva, Botho Researcher
July 25, 2023
With more than 40 countries interested in joining the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) alliance, now is the time to analyze and question the bloc’s raison d’être and trajectory from the perspectives of its incumbent members. In particular, it would be worthwhile to look at BRICS from the point of view of Brazil, a member that has been through many different political and economic upheavals that have shaped its relationship with the bloc since its inception in 2009. Coinciding with Brazil’s political and economic trajectory, the country’s alignment with BRICS-related goals and ideologies peaked during its golden years in the 2000s, followed by a period of reduced engagement in the 2010s due to internal turmoil. Today, we may possibly see a revival of the country’s commitment to the bloc, as signs of prosperity and stability are on the horizon. That said, even if Brazil becomes more active in BRICS, it has one notable point of divergence from the bloc’s core ambition, namely, creating a new world order to counter the West. As a country that has historically tried to maintain good relationships with the West while simultaneously promoting trade with other partners, it is not in Brazil’s direct interest to promote an alternative global order, especially one that alienates Western allies.
When Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neill coined the term ‘BRICS' in early 2000s, Brazil’s economy was growing at a hitherto unseen pace due to the commodity boom. The government stabilized under 8 years of President Lula’s leadership (2003-2010), who left office with an approval rating of almost 90%. The country saw an economic growth of 7.5% in 2010, not far from the development rates of China and India. Brazil’s position as an agricultural powerhouse and its amicable foreign policy meant that it was respected internationally and had a voice in public forums. Moreover, its membership in BRICS meant that it could strengthen ties with countries outside of the US-Latin America dynamic, leveraging its emerging market identity, and gain soft power by deepening alliances with countries like China and India, while still maintaining its relationships with the West.
Then came the 2010s. The effects of the financial crisis of 2008 rippled through the Brazilian economy, followed by great political turmoil. In the span of a few years, Brazil faced a country-wide scandal, which started as an operation on money-laundering and ended up uncovering widespread corruption in Brazil’s state oil company, Petrobras. This, inevitably, increased distrust in the government and tarnished the country’s reputation abroad. President Dilma Rousseff was impeached in 2016, and in 2018, President Jair Bolsonaro came to power, leading to a period of significant instability, undoubtedly exacerbated by the pandemic. All of this shifted the country’s image on the international stage, with other world leaders effectively ostracizing Bolsonaro during multilateral gatherings, such as the G20. Now, Brazil’s image is undergoing yet another shift, as it tries to repair formerly frayed ties with Western partners.
Fast-forward to the present day, Lula is back in the President’s seat, the pandemic is in some ways behind us, and Brazil is looking ahead towards a hopeful future. This is supported by the country’s economic growth of 1.9% in the first quarter, a notch higher than the original prediction of 1.3%. If Brazil is able to rebuild its reputation and address critical issues, such as the future of the Amazon, it could leverage its soft power, substantial agricultural production capabilities, and trade potential to lead BRICS closer to its goals of increased trade and economic cooperation. This is a potential turning point for Brazil - its approach to political economy will now define the years to come, and consequently have a great effect on BRICS. This is already exemplified by former president Dilma Rousseff’s active leadership of the New Development Bank, the BRICS’ alternative to institutions like the IMF.
NEW MEMBERS: WILL BRICS BECOME BRICS+?
Given Brazil’s regained respect on the world stage, and its commitment to strengthening its international ties and boosting growth, what is its take on new members joining the BRICS bloc? The expansion of BRICS could weaken its efficiency and goal-setting, as making decisions in bigger and more diverse groups takes longer and can at times be inconclusive.While a potential expansion could be of interest to China, which is looking to build stronger ties with a variety of allies with the goal of establishing an alternative world order through BRICS, it may not be of interest to Brazil, whose primary goals are economic cooperation and good relationships with Western leaders.
While Brazil followed in the footsteps of other BRICS countries by not imposing sanctions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, it is still trying to remain on good terms with the EU and the US. Brazil is not keen to build a world order to counter the West and potentially foment more tension. If Brazil had a unilateral say in the future of BRICS, the bloc would remain a small group of tight-knit members focused on economic growth and trade agreements.
As Brazil’s reinvigorated interest and commitment to BRICS enters a new era of strengthened diplomatic ties and foreign policy, it will be important to monitor how its own objectives intersect and interact with those of the bloc. In particular, it remains to be seen whether or not Brazil endorses or stymies the expansion of this alliance, which, despite its shortcomings, has the potential to amplify the collective voice of emerging markets.
Heitor Pellegrina is an Assistant Professor of Economics at New York University Abu Dhabi and Izabela Silva is a researcher at Botho Emerging Markets Group.